In the clearest possible sign that the United Kingdom government now expects an early exit of Scotland from the Union, an evaluation group from the Ministry of Defence visited Gibraltar in January.
By that time, the shape, weight and direction of the SNP was obvious to everyone.
This action – to evaluate the viability of Gibraltar as what would be an interim – or perhaps even a permanent – base for the Trident carrying Vanguard submarines – is a new and serious departure for the MoD.
This would not see any repetition of the claim that moving the Trident system out of Scotland would be a time consuming business, with the preparation of a replacement base first to be completed.
The MoD has exercised unusual lateral thinking here both in looking at Gibraltar and in considering the fastest possible removal of the Continuous At Sea Deterrent. Gibraltar is evidently a viable submarine base – with the added advantage of generous deep water access – and would require an much simpler and quicker expansion of its capabilities, as opposed to the construction of a completely new base. This latter challenge would be the case at, for example, Milford Haven, which has been looking like the best UK-based permanent alternative.
The indication is that the MoD’s contingency planning is to be able to prepare a much quicker exit from Scotland in advance of indyref 2, should the SNP wield this sort of negotiating clout in a messy hung parliament after 7th May General Election.
An interim base at Gibraltar would allow the creation of a permanent base in the UK to proceed without the distraction of constant political pressure from Scotland.
Gibraltar has long been a familiar British naval port, with a sometimes uncomfortable history of submarine visits.
In May 2000, HMS Tireless, one of the Trafalgar class of nuclear powered hunter-killer submarines now being replaced by the new Astute class, came into Gibraltar. She has developed a serious leak in her reactor’s primary cooling circuit, leading to the shut down of her nuclear propulsion system.
There was no leakage of radioactive material and Tireless got to Gibraltar on her back-up diesel engine.
With the damage greater than thought, Tireless became a permanent feature in the port for almost a year, leaving in ay 2001 and with her prolonged stay causing diplomatic tensions between Britain and Spain.This mean that when, in 2005, HMS Sceptre, one of the older Swiftsure class of attack submarines [also beimg replaced by the Astutes'] came into Gibraltar with what was described as external damage. This was known actually to be damage to her diesel generator’s cooling system. However, after the Tireless experience, the MoD did not mention’ cooling systems’, although Sceptre’s was nothing to do with her reactor.
The Spanish government found out, of course, and tensions rose again. Sceptre left Gibraltar six days later, as had been the projected time for repair. She is the last British nuclear submarine to have used Gibraltar.This history – added to the continuing political tensions over the position of Gibraltar as a British Overseas Territory – would suggest that the interim use of Gibraltar of the Vanguard wold not be wholly straightforward – although Spain is a member of NATO – a non-nuclear one, as an indy Scotland would plan to be.
But the degree of British patriotism among Gibraltarians is counted as a major positive in this option, avoiding the nimbyism that would be a certain response to any projected move within the UK.
